May 08, 2008 10:31 am
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No. 1 — Texas State
Record: (35-17, 25-5 SLC)
Hitters to watch: Mackenzie Baack (2008 Southland Conference Hitter of the Year, .348 AVG., 8 HR, 24 RBI, .438 OBP). Alex Newton (.325 AVG., 29 R, 69 TB, 22 RBI, 10 SB). Leah Boatright (.309 AVG., 4 HR, 24 RBI, 13 2B).
Pitcher to watch: Ragan Blake (2008 Southland Conference Pitcher of the Year, 2008 Southland Conference Player of the Year, 20-10, 2.26 ERA, 191 2/3 IP, 183 SO).
Why Texas State will win: The Bobcats placed eight players on the All-SLC teams, tops in the league. Texas State has six hitters who bat better than .300 in conference play. Ragan Blake is 16-3 against SLC opponents with 123 strikeouts. The Bobcats are the number-one seed and have the home-field advantage, as well as the reigning hitter and pitcher of the year.
Why Texas State won’t win: The Bobcats are a very heady team and it begins in the pitching circle. Blake, while a tremendous asset to have in the circle, often gets too confident and tries to overpitch. If a team can get to Blake early and knock her off her game, she can be had.
Prediction: 2008 Southland Conference champions
No. 2 — UT-Arlington
Record: (27-21, 20-10 SLC)
Hitters to watch: Katie Jones (.345 AVG., 33 R, 6 HR, 20 RBI, 7 SB). Amanda Swofford (.313 AVG., 30 R, 27 RBI, .612 SLG pct, .399 OBP). Rebecca Collom (.262 AVG., 27 R, 10 HR, 26 RBI)
Pitcher to watch: Cara Hulme (16-6, 1.89 ERA, 161 1/3 IP, 179 SO).
Why UTA will win: The Mavs have a strong lineup with its first five batters. UTA has hit 55 home runs this season, compared to their opponents, who had 25. The Mavs are patient at the plate and draw walks, and can move station-to-station on the base paths. UTA has a bye to the semifinal round, so it should be rested to advance.
Why UTA won’t win: The Mavs are 11-11 on the road and 1-6 at neutral sites. Take it away from its friendly confines, UTA can’t win too many games. Hulme does give up home runs (12) and is often wild (eight hit batsmen). Jump on the Mavs early and they could have a hard time digging out of the hole.
Prediction: Semifinal win against Nicholls State, loss in championship game to Texas State
No. 3 — UTSA
Record: (25-24, 20-10 SLC)
Hitters to watch: Dayne Holmes (.328 AVG., 8 HR, 33 RBI, .540 SLG). Rudi Cantu (.320 AVG., 38 R, 16 RBI, 11 SB). Whitney Balch (.298 AVG., 15 R, 5 HR, 22 RBI).
Pitcher to watch: Amanda Nikolenko (11-15, 3.19 ERA, 156 IP, 122 SO).
Why UTSA will win: The Roadrunners have a balanced offense that can do it all — hit for power, move runners station-to-station, and sacrifice a runner over. Holmes and Cantu should make sure UTSA sees a second game in the conference tournament.
Why UTSA won’t win: Pitching, pitching, pitching. The Roadrunners give up way too many home runs for their own good. Even though UTSA plays at a launching pad, it has served up 31 long balls. The Roadrunners are 14-13 away from home and are 1-2 at neutral sites.
Prediction: Second-round loss to Nicholls State
No. 4 — Stephen F. Austin
Record: (33-23, 18-11 SLC)
Hitters to watch: Kendal Harper (.379 AVG., 40 R, 12 2B, 25 RBI, 28 SB). Jessica Tullos (.338 AVG., 10 HR, 33 RBI, .603 SLG). Ashley Strutchteme (.300 AVG., 7 HR, 23 RBI, .331 OBP)
Pitcher to watch: Monika Covington (17-12, 1.39 ERA, 211 2/3 IP, 232 SO).
Why SFA will win: The Lady Jacks score runs in bunches. SFA can hit for power and run the bases for speed. The Lady Jacks have 87 steals on the year. Once Harper gets on the paths, she can torment the opposition and can force bad pitches.
Why SFA won’t win: Covington is wild at times and it can lead to the Lady Jacks’ downfall. She has 18 wild pitches and has hit 13 batsmen. SFA also doesn’t have a deep bench, so if a game gets into the later stages, its players may be tired.
Prediction: Second-round win against Southeastern Louisiana, loss in semifinal round against Texas State
No. 5 — McNeese State
Record: (22-35, 15-14 SLC)
Hitters to watch: Jenny Clay (.382 AVG., 36 R, 17 2B, 6 HR, 26 RBI). Molly Guidry (.252 AVG., 31 R, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 23 SB). Megan Beard (.278 AVG., 16 R, 22 RBI, 67 TB).
Pitcher to watch: Bethany Stefinsky (8-12, 3.87 ERA, 123 IP, 119 SO).
Why McNeese will win: The Cowgirls have a potent lineup that can ride deep into the tournament. Clay can do it all for McNeese, leading the team in average, steals and doubles. Guidry anchors the lineup in the middle with her 27 RBIs and 23 SB.
Why McNeese won’t win: The Cowgirls don’t have the pitching to get them into the semifinals. An offense is great, but if the pitching can’t hold back the opposition, it will be a slugfest. Two players can’t carry McNeese.
Prediction: First-round loss to Southeastern Louisiana
No. 6 — Nicholls State
Record: (28-27, 15-14 SLC)
Hitters to watch: Kathryn Harrell (.400 AVG., 40 R, 13 2B, 23 RBI, 15 SB). Danielle Clayton (.301 AVG., 24 R, 23 RBI, 8 SB). Amy Thibodeaux (.288 AVG, 12 HR, 33 RBI, .610 SLG).
Pitcher to watch: Lacey Gros (8-3, 2.55 ERA, 79 2/3 IP, 92 SO).
Why Nicholls will win: The Colonels have a solid lineup that can drive in runs once they got on base. Harrell and Thibodeaux anchor the hitting with 56 RBIs combined. Thibodeaux has raw power and drives the ball to all parts of the field.
Why Nicholls won’t win: The Colonels lack a convincing number-one pitcher. Gros has solid strikeout numbers, but she’s not the consistent starter. Nicholls will need to slug it out to make it deep into the tournament and its pitching will not allow it.
Prediction: First-round win against Sam Houston State, second-round win against UTSA, semifinal loss to UT-Arlington.
No. 7 — Sam Houston State
Record: (30-30, 15-15 SLC)
Hitters to watch: Haliey Wiginton (.389 AVG., 29 R, 18 RBI, 12 BB). Morgan Mikulin (.317 AVG., 11 R, 7 HR, 36 RBI, .522 SLG). Amy Brown (.295 AVG., 26 R, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 13 SB).
Pitcher to watch: Brandi Crnkovic (15-18, 2.81 ERA, 199 IP, 186 SO).
Why Sam Houston will win: The Bearkats can turn the lineup over and knock in runners in scoring position. Mikulin can knock the cover off the ball and Wiginton is a patient hitter at the plate. Crnkovic is solid on the mound, even though her numbers are less than stellar. If any lower-seeded team has a chance to pull a few upsets, this is it.
Why Sam Houston won’t win: The Bearkats’ pitching staff gives up way too many home runs and at a hitter’s park like Bobcat Field, it could provide a problem. Sam Houston is 9-14 away from home, so the combative atmosphere could give problems to the team.
Prediction: First-round loss to Nicholls State
No. 8 — SE Louisiana
Record: (27-24, 14-15 SLC)
Hitters to watch: Heather Sherrill (.364 AVG., 21 R, 9 HR, 39 RBI, .611 SLG). Katie Duke (.357 AVG., 28 R, 7 HR, 36 RBI). Brooke Lockhart (.274 AVG., 27 R, 8 HR, 30 RBI)
Pitcher to watch: Rachel Ray (15-14, 2.33 ERA, 195 IP, 162 SO).
Why Southeastern will win: The Lady Lions have a powerful threesome in the middle of the lineup with Sherrill, Duke and Lockhart. Those three hitters are enough to cause opposing pitchers nightmares. Ray keeps the ball down in the zone and it’s important to do at Bobcat Field, which is a hitter’s park.
Why Southeastern won’t win: The Lady Lions are the eighth seed, so it makes it tough to get deep into the tournament. Southeastern has a tough first-round match up against McNeese State. The Lady Lions have also lost three straight conference games going into the tournament and it can’t be good when a team needs momentum entering the most important part of the season.
Prediction: First-round win against McNeese State, second-round loss to Stephen F. Austin.
• Tyler Mayforth
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