Opinion: Need a tip? We’ve got you covered from No. 16 to No. 1

Sports

March 17, 2010

By Tyler Mayforth Daily Record Columnist

San Marcos — Ah, March.

Birds are chirping. Grass is growing. Brackets are blooming.

Wait, what?

Yes. If you are among the thousands of people who get excited at the mention of “Selection Sunday,” then brace yourself because the 2010 Division I NCAA Tournament tips off Thursday afternoon.

Sixty-five teams will vie for the right to be called champion, but let’s be honest — only a handful have a true shot at reaching the Final Four.

Out of the 65 teams, you can automatically rule out the No. 16 seeds. There haven’t been any 16s knocking off top-ranked teams since the tournament expanded to 64 in 1985, so let’s get that out of the way.

It doesn’t matter what pool you’re in, some Nostradamus is always going to select a huge upset, like a No. 15 over a No. 2. It’s happened four times, but with this current crop of second-ranked squads (Kansas State, Ohio State, West Virginia and Villanova), it’s not going to occur in 2010.

If you’re looking for an upset, keep your eyes peeled for the No. 14 vs. No. 3 matchups. Trusty Daily Record sports editor Randy Stevens feels Sam Houston State, the Southland Conference’s automatic bid, has what it takes to eliminate Baylor from the tournament. Let it also be known that Northwestern State was No. 14 when it took out No. 3 Iowa in 2006.

If a Cinderella is going to come out of the double-digit seeds, don’t look for a No. 13 to wear the glass slipper in 2010.

Instead, take a gander at No. 12 Texas-El Paso, one of seven teams from the Lone Star State in the NCAA Tournament. The Miners have a solid inside-out game and will be hungry coming off an abysmal loss in the Conference USA championship game to Houston.

While UTEP could be this year’s bracket buster, several No. 11 seeds could also make some noise. San Diego State (vs. Tennessee), Old Dominion (vs. Notre Dame) and Washington (vs. Marquette) all have what it takes to take down the big dogs.

Once you cross into single digits, all bets (oops, I mean picks) are thrown out the window. Teams ranked at No. 10 have lost 39 percent of the time and No. 9 has been fine at a 54-percent clip. There won’t be any No. 8 seeds left after the second round. You can say the same about No. 7s.

If you’re looking for a No. 6 to make it to the Final Four, you might as well call Julius Erving, because it’s not happening.

Out of the teams seeded at No. 5, Michigan State has the best chance to make a deep push into the tournament. The Spartans get New Mexico State in the first round and could easily beat Maryland in the second to advance into the Sweet 16.

A lot of pundits questioned the selection committee’s choices, but none present more of a head scratch than some of the current No. 4 seeds. Purdue, who was demolished by Minnesota in the Big 10 tournament, is going to be an easy out without Robbie Hummell and Maryland, who didn’t make a dent in the ACC tournament, received a gift in playing Houston.

Two teams from the Big East received No. 3 seeds (Georgetown and Pittsburgh) while Baylor and New Mexico picked up the remaining bids. Look for the Bears (my Final Four surprise) and Lobos (possible Elite Eight) to go deeper than the Hoyas and Panthers.

If you want to ride a second-ranked team into the Final Four, look at Ohio State. The Buckeyes, ranked No. 2 in the Midwest, feature Evan Turner and a strong supporting cast. Imagine Ohio State to be the “Up in the Air” pick in the tournament.

Now that all the dust is settled, you can take a gander at the No. 1 seeds. Since 1979, there has only been one year (2008) when all the top-ranked teams reach the Final Four. Look for Duke and Syracuse to be the first to fall followed by Kentucky. Kansas will be your national champion.

Oh and in case you want a women’s champion, it’s always safe to pick Connecticut.