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The Greater San Marcos Partnership hosted the Greater San Marcos Economic Outlook luncheon on Thursday at the Embassy Suites San Marcos. Above, a commercial real estate panel — featuring Robert Allen, president TXEDC; Terry Mitchell, Momark Development president; Buck Cody, Endeavor principal; and GSMP President Jason Giulietti — discusses the economic future. Below, Adriana Cruz, executive director of development and tourism for Gov. Greg Abbott’s office, presents a proclamation from the governor to Giulietti. Daily Record photos by Lance Winter

OUTLOOK PROMISING: GSMP, business leaders forecast economic path to recovery amid pandemic

Thursday, November 12, 2020

Although COVID-19 continues to cloud the future, economic leaders are hopeful 2021 will provide a bounce back year for the Greater San Marcos region and beyond. 

The Greater San Marcos Partnership held its 2020 Greater San Marcos Economic Outlook luncheon Thursday with in-person attendees at the Embassy Suites San Marcos and virtual attendees viewing online. Thursday’s event discussed the economic outlook within the Greater San Marcos region, a state-level discussion, national overview and a panel discussion on commercial real estate. 

GSMP President Jason Giulietti began the luncheon by examining the hardships created by the ongoing pandemic and the region’s resiliency. 

“Our local communities really stepped up during COVID to do all they could to help make sure all small businesses, large businesses remain viable during this unprecedented time,” Giulietti said. “As for the partnership itself, we ran toward the fire as quickly as we could and we stepped into several different task forces or councils. We hosted more than six, seven events for our businesses, our residents to bring them the resources they need to get through this troubling time.” 

Despite the pandemic, Hays and Caldwell counties continue to see unprecedented growth, Giulietti said, citing Hays County’s distinction as one of the fastest growing counties in the nation and Caldwell County’s 14% population growth. He added that the labor force in the Greater San Marcos footprint has grown by 45%, adding that the GSMP helped add 5,500 direct, new jobs for the residents of the two counties and has accounted for $538 million in capital expenditures and provides an annual economic impact of $2.8 billion for the communities its serves. 

“Much of this population is folks coming to Texas wanting a better quality of life, a better life for them and their families,” Giulietti said. “So, we are welcoming those companies and those individuals as they come to our state.” 

Adriana Cruz, executive director of development and tourism for Gov. Greg Abbott’s office, said at the state level it's seeing more prospect activity than before COVID-19 and Texas maintains a high level of interest from companies around the country looking to relocate. 

“This interest is due to our favorable business climate, reasonable regulatory environment and growing, skilled and diverse workforce,” Cruz said, adding that Central Texas recently saw $1.8 billion in capital investments and 11,600 new jobs created. 

Cruz added that Texas is on track to be the “economic powerhouse of the nation.” 

“We’re already seeing signs of recovery throughout our economy,” Cruz said. “Although we faced tremendous challenges in 2020, the Texas economy remains resilient and finding solutions to challenging situations is part of the Texas identity. This has never been truer than through the COVID-19 pandemic. We’ve seen countless Texas businesses stepping up to the plate to solve the challenges that our state is facing.”

Although economic recovery continues throughout the country, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to be the most forceful concern facing the economy with cases increasing nationwide, said Charles Dougherty, Thursday’s keynote speaker and a vice president and economist at Wells Fargo Securities. 

“What we see is cases are on the rise, hospitalizations are on the rise and how that impacts the economy, there’s a number of ways,” Dougherty said. “But the number one way is it could lead potentially to more rules and restrictions. Now, are we going to go back to where we were in the spring where everybody was sheltered in place and businesses were asked to shutter? Probably not. But if cases keep going up at the same rate, what we do think might happen is we might see some very precise and targeted restrictions.”

Dougherty, however, said the country is on the path to economic recovery despite concerns of further coronavirus-related restrictions. He added that the country has regained approximately 11 million jobs and the unemployment rate has decreased from 18% when the economic shutdown occurred in the spring to 6.9% currently. 

Dougherty said that the Greater San Marcos region is poised for growth as the economic recovery continues. 

“One thing to always remember is that San Marcos had a lot of momentum heading into (COVID),” he said. “So, what’s happened, it’s not a typical recession. So, it’s really important, if you were poised for growth beforehand, you’re probably gonna see a lot of growth afterward too.” 

San Marcos Record

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