Texas State heating up outside in early conference play

The Bobcats seemed rattled by exam season.

Texas State’s last day of final exams for the 2020 fall semester took place Dec. 11. The maroon and gold shot just 2-11 on 3-pointers in a 74-53 road loss to Texas on Dec. 9 — an 18.2% clip that ranked as the lowest in any game the season. 

Three days later, the team doubled its attempts from deep but connected at the same rate, sinking just 4-22 in a 61-58 home loss to Our Lady of the Lake.

On Dec. 15, the Bobcats earned a new season-low by making just 15.4% on their long-range shots in a 51-46 win inside Strahan Arena over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi — a team they had beaten by 12 just two and a half weeks earlier. 

“Usually, around this time of the year, guys' shooting percentages drop because they are in the gym less because they are in study hall more,” interim head coach Terrence Johnson said after the win against the Islanders. “So I'm hopeful that, with school being over, guys can dedicate a little bit more time to working out some of those kinks.”

The kinks are  long gone now. Texas State is shooting 47.7% from outside against conference opponents through six Sun Belt games, seven percentage points higher than any other school in the league. The Bobcats’ season average is now at 38.8%, ranking 22nd in the NCAA.

“We've been putting in the work,” Johnson said. “We've been in the gym and I think the layout of our week helps with that, being able to factor in player development throughout the course of the workweek. And the second thing is, is identifying what quality shots are. And the right guys are shooting from the right places. So we're doing a really, really good job of ball distribution, being able to give guys good, clean looks.”

The development can be seen in players like junior guard Caleb Asberry. The Pflugerville native was 24.7% from behind the line as a sophomore. He’s increased it to 44.8% this year and has already surpassed the 23 treys he made in 2019-20 with 30 this season.

Asberry noted how much more comfortable he’s been in an offense that’s had to adjust to the absence of the program’s all-time leading scorer, Nijal Pearson. Johnson has put a greater emphasis on spacing the floor correctly and sharing the ball. It took nearly the entire non-conference season for the change to take effect, but the players have adapted.

“There's room to, like, be us, to go score in space. It just gives us a better opportunity,” Asberry said. “It's really just trust. We really don't get mad at each other for shooting the ball. We all trust each other a lot now and it's good and I like it.”

KenPom’s percentage of possessions used rating shows just how evenly spread Texas State’s touches are. KenPom defines a “go-to guy” as a player that uses more than 28% of his team’s possessions, a “major contributor” as a player that uses 24-28% of his team’s possessions and a “significant contributor” as a player that uses 20-24% of his team’s possessions. In a perfectly shared offense, in which each player receives equal touches, each individual would have a usage rating of 20%.

Pearson led Texas State last year using 28.5% of its possessions as a go-to guy. The maroon and gold had two other significant contributors. Redshirt junior forward Alonzo Sule leads the Bobcats this year, but only has a usage rating of 23.4% and is one of five significant contributors on the roster. 

“We knew where the shots were going to come from with Nijal and we tried to get him those shots,” Johnson said. “But at the same time, he needed his space to work and he also put in the work around the clock. So in some ways, it's the same recipe. It's just in a different pot.”

The hot shooting outside has opened up space inside, too. Texas State is hitting 52.7% of its 2-pointers in Sun Belt play, six percentage points higher than any other school in the league. 

When defenses extend out to the perimeter, the Bobcats can take their man off the dribble and get to the rim. When defenses collapse to stop the close-range shots, the Bobcats can kick it back out to a wide-open shooter. It’s been devastating for the team’s opponents.

I know some people (@Arolexion specifically) have been wondering where this perimeter shooting has been from #TXST all year. I think a big piece of it is the ball movement they've shown this weekend.

There's more passes than dribbles after they cross halfcourt here @smdrsports pic.twitter.com/66lEd29tai

— Drew King (@drewking0222) January 16, 2021

“Players like (senior guard) Shelby (Adams), they can get downhill so well,” Asberry said. “They just help create. (Junior guard) Mason (Harrell), he can get downhill very well and I feel like I can, too. So just getting downhill, and then swinging it around the horn, it just opens up the 3.”

Asberry, Harrell and senior forward Isiah Small are all averaging double-digit points this year. It’s the first time Texas State has had that many players accomplish the feat since the 2015-16 year. Each player is also, coincidentally, shooting above 40% on 3s.

The Bobcats (11-4, 5-1 Sun Belt) will host Louisiana (11-4, 5-3) for a two-game series this weekend, both Friday and Saturday’s games tipping off at 4 p.m. inside Strahan Arena. It’ll be Texas State’s first home game since the victory over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.

The Ragin’ Cajuns will be without their head coach, Bob Marlin, after he tested positive for COVID-19 on Monday. Louisiana assistant coach Neil Hardin will take the lead coaching role for the visitors, per Tim Buckley of The Daily Advertiser.