Metropolitan areas across Texas have regained most of the jobs lost due to COVID-19. While growth that would have otherwise occurred has been foregone or at least delayed, the long-term outlook remains quite positive.
More than three fourths of all jobs across the state are currently found in the state’s seven largest metropolitan areas, a proportion which has been rising steadily over time. Through 2045, the Houston and the Dallas areas will likely each account for approximately one fourth of net new jobs, with the greater Austin, San Antonio, and Fort Worth regions each contributing between 8% and 9% of the total gain.
The fastest-growing metropolitan centers as measured by percentage changes in jobs are expected to be those with significant concentrations of energy activity (though some of these are coming back from steep initial declines and lingering vestiges of COVID-19) including Odessa (up by a compound annual 1.90% per year through 2045), Midland (1.87%), San Angelo (1.85%), and Tyler (1.81%). These smaller MSAs are projected to equal or exceed the most rapidly expanding large metro areas (such as Dallas-Plano-Irving with 1.85% annual growth and Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown with 1.80%).
