A new report on the global economic outlook has recently been released. The World Economic Forum regularly surveys chief economists, with the current information collected during the first half of April. The findings are worthy of note.
I would like to say that the negative outlook pervading the new report is surprising, but unfortunately it is expected. The survey was conducted during the worst of the tariff turmoil (at least this far), which didn’t help matters, and hopefully some participants have become less negative in the hopes that much of the chaos will soon subside. Few lasting trade deals have been struck, however, and, although some levies have been paused, others have been implemented in a somewhat haphazard manner. Uncertainty causes new investments, hiring decisions, product introductions, and even consumer spending to stall until things become clearer, which impedes the path to progress. In fact, the World Bank released a subsequent forecast with the lowest projected expansion since the pandemic and a call to end the trade turmoil.
Other factors negatively affecting the outlook include the multiple lingering wars – Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East – and tension in other areas. These conflicts further contribute to an underlying level of uncertainty, as any significant escalation could disrupt oil markets, shipping, and other crucial economic factors. Amidst these risks, the US tariff blitz hit particularly hard.
