The rumors of Texas State and the Pac-12 conference that have been circulating for months are now starting to take the form of possibility.
Pete Thamel of ESPN reported that Texas State is the heavy favorite to become the newest member of the Pac-12 with the Bobcats to join the conference in 2026.
Though nothing has not been finalized, here is what you need to know about how this situation has come to this point.
How did we get here?
The Pac-12 Conference was hit the hardest by the current realignment movement, losing 83% of their members to the Atlantic Coast, Big 12 and Big Ten conferences, leaving only Oregon State and Washington State.
Instead of merging with the Mountain West Conference to form a 16-team league, the Pac-12 opted to add Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State from the Mountain West and later added Gonzaga from the West Coast Conference.
Pac-12 extended invitations to add UNLV and Air Force from the Mountain West but were turned down.
Why is Texas State being targeted?
The Pac-12 is currently looking for an eighth conference member who sponsors football as a sport. Though the conference is already at eight full-time members, Gonzaga does not sponsor football. That leaves the Pac-12 at seven football playing members, one short of remaining eligible to become a member of the Football Bowl Subdivision.
Though the Pac-12 has talked to Memphis and Tulane in addition to Air Force and UNLV, Texas State moved up the boards as a potienal target.
One of the main reasons for targeting Texas State as a new member is the cost of the buyout for leaving a conference. For Memphis and Tulane to leave the American Athletic Confernce, the reported exit fee to leave is currently at $25 million dollars. For Texas State to leave the Sun Belt, the buyout reportedly sits at $5 million which will rise to $10 million dollars after July 1 of this year.
Why is Texas State interested?
While Texas State and the Sun Belt Conference are in good standing with the conference being regarded as one of the best mid-majors in the nation, the university has long been willing to change conferences.
From the move to Division I in 1984 to making the jump to FBS in 2012, Texas State has always looked for ways to elevate the university from an athletic standpoint.
As it stands, Texas State reportly receives around $2 million dollars from their media rights deal with the Sun Belt. A potential move to the Pac-12 could result in Texas State earning more than triple what they make in the Sun Belt with the expectation the new media rights deal with the conference generating around $9-10 million.
The media rights deal could also put Texas State athletics on more television stations instead of behind the paywall of ESPN+, putting more eyes on the university itself.
What happens next?
Everything points to somebody making a move in the next two weeks. The Pac-12 is looking to add on an eighth football playing member before July 1st while Texas State is looking for the right deal that will benefit the university the best. Reports have suggested early talks with the Pac-12 that Texas State wants a full share of the upcoming media deal and that the ball is in the conference’s court on whether they will add the university. Expect something to be announced sooner rather than later.
