The impact of natural disasters — such as droughts, floods and hurricanes — has been an increasingly critical factor in food price inflation for the nation’s agricultural output. Texas agriculture faces an expected annual loss of $205 million, with droughts being the primary driver, according to a study by software technology company Trace One.
In Hays County, losses from natural disasters echo the statewide figures, with Trace One reporting the following numbers: Total expected annual loss: $285,421 Expected annual loss per farm: $304 Expected annual loss rate: 1.0% Total farms: 940 Total agriculture value: $28,171,892 Worst natural hazard for agriculture: Drought California leads the nation in agricultural losses due to natural hazards, with farms in the state incurring an estimated $1.3 billion in losses annually. This figure dwarfs losses in other states, with drought being the most significant hazard affecting California’s vast agricultural sector. On a per-farm basis, California reports an average loss of $20,528 — the highest of any state — reflecting its reliance on highvalue crops such as fruits, nuts, and vegetables, which are particularly vulnerable to water shortages.
Texas, Iowa, North Carolina and Florida round out the top five, each suffering from a combination of droughts and hurricanes, though with lower total and per-farm losses than California.
The increased frequency of natural hazards has created a challenging environment for farmers. However, the effects of climate- and weather-related disasters are not uniform, varying greatly depending on location. To pinpoint where these events are having the greatest impact on farmers and the nation’s food supply, researchers at Trace One — a company specializing in product lifecycle management (PLM) and regulatory compliance software for the food and beverage industry — conducted an indepth analysis of the latest data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
According to estimates from FEMA, natural hazards cause an average of $3.5 billion in agricultural losses annually, with drought being the single largest contributor. Drought alone accounts for more than half of these losses, averaging $1.9 billion per year. The financial impact of drought underscores its threat to farmers, particularly in regions reliant on waterintensive crops.
Other significant contributors to agricultural losses include hurricanes, which cause $485 million in annual losses, along with flooding ($437 million) and cold waves ($286 million). Events such as hailstorms, strong winds and heat waves collectively add hundreds of millions in losses to the yearly toll. While less frequent, disasters like tornadoes, winter weather and wildfires also contribute economic strain in certain regions.
Natural disasters impacting agriculture vary significantly across U.S. regions due to differing climates and geographic vulnerabilities. Drought is a persistent challenge on the West Coast, particularly in California, as well as the Southwest and parts of the Southern Plains, where water scarcity hampers crop yields and livestock production.
Hurricanes have the most severe impact in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions, where states like Florida and North Carolina frequently experience storm surges and high winds that devastate crops and infrastructure. Riverine flooding is most problematic in the Mississippi River Basin and its extensive tributary networks, as well as in the Pacific Northwest. Cold waves are most prominent in the Midwest and Mountain West, where freezing temperatures can damage crops and livestock operations.
The data used in this study is from FEMA’s National Risk Index and the USDA’s Census of Agriculture. To identify locations where natural hazards have the greatest impact on the nation’s food supply, researchers at Trace One analyzed and ranked locations based on their average annual economic loss (expected annual loss) in 2025 dollars within the agricultural sector. This metric accounts for damages caused by natural hazards such as cold waves, hail, heat waves, hurricanes, riverine flooding, strong winds, tornadoes, wildfires, and winter weather events, using data collected since 1996. Total farm data was derived using 2022 county data and 2024 state data, the latest available data provided from the USDA.
The analysis also incorporated the expected annual loss rate, calculated as the expected annual loss divided by the total annual value of the agricultural sector for each location. Additionally, researchers identified the worst natural hazard for agriculture in each location, which is the hazard contributing the largest share of the expected annual loss.
