LETTER TO THE EDITOR
Dear Editor, Here we go again: another round of elections. It seems like we just shut the door on the last cycle. And here comes a new batch of candidates knocking on many of those same doors, in every corner of the county, asking for your vote, my vote, and everybody else’s vote on March 3.
So, what’s different this time? Well, for starters, we’re not actually electing anybody to office in this go-round. What we’re doing is choosing our candidates for the November General Election. That’s why it’s called a Primary Election – it’s the first step in a multi-step process leading up to November.
Both parties have some of the most comprehensive and competitive primary ballots they’ve ever offered – from United States Senate and House of Representatives to Governor, and dozens of state, judicial, and county offices. This includes Hays County Judge, two Commissioners Court seats, District Clerk, County Clerk, County Treasurer, and Justices of the Peace. In fact, they’re so comprehensive, and with so many competitors, that we’re definitely looking at runoff elections in May.
How do we know that? Because for both parties, many races have three or more candidates – 12 races for the Democrats and eight for the Republicans. And in a race with more than two candidates, it’s rare that a single candidate can garner a majority. So, in the primary, if no one grabs a majority, the field gets winnowed to the top two finishers and they get to face off against each other in the May 26 runoffs.
You’d think, with so much at stake and so many candidate choices spread across the ideological spectrum in both parties, that voter turnout would be strong – especially with 11 days of early voting leading up to Election Day on March 3. But you’d be wrong. The fact is that Primary turnout in Hays County, with rare exceptions, tends to be abysmal.
Let’s look at some history. We’ll start with the 2022 Primary Election – that’s the most recent election analogous to this year’s March 3 primary. In that one, 29,146 voters cast ballots. That’s both parties combined. It may sound like a lot, but in county that, at the time, had 158,155 registered voters, the total turnout was 18.4 percent – less than one out of five voters.
We saw pretty much the same thing in 2018. With 121,446 registered voters, only 22,980 – or 19.75 percent of Hays County’s voters – turned out for the primary. Again, less than one out of five.
So, in our most recent off-year Primary elections, less than 20 percent of Hays County voters decided who would be on the November ballot. The other 80 percent didn’t have a say.
The purpose of the primary system is to give voters a voice in the selection of a party’s general election candidates. There was a time when it was the party bosses gathered in the proverbial “smoke-filled rooms” to decide who would be on the ballot. And, yes, in an absolute sense, the primary system is fairer than the old back-room system. But, with such a small minority of voters actually participating, it still comes down to a few deciding for the many.
That’s the antithesis of democracy. While the opportunity to have a voice in candidate selection is there for the taking, very few are actually taking it.
There’s an odd disparity in how the parties vote in the primaries, as well. Looking again at 2022, Democratic primary turnout was 8.39 percent. On the other side of the ballot, Republican turnout was 10.01 percent. That’s a difference of more than 16 percent. But moving on to November’s general election, Democrats won 27 of the 31 contested races, for a win rate just above 87 percent. And the vote share for winning Democratic candidates ranged from 50.53 percent to 66.79 percent.
The results were similar in 2018. Democrats accounted for 9.60 percent of the Primary Election turnout; Republicans, 10.15 percent. Although the gap was smaller, GOP Primary turnout still led by 5.4 percent.
It’s a completely different story when we look at the 2018 general election. Of the 30 contested partisan races on the ballot, the Democrats took 25 – a whopping 83.3 percent, with winning vote shares ranging from 50.85 percent to 68.67 percent.
There are at least two conclusions that can be drawn from the 2018 and 2022 races. First and foremost, Primary turnout is not destiny. As the data indicates, it is certainly not indicative of what happens at the polls in November. Second, Primary turnout can also be reflective of the effectiveness of Get-Out-the-Vote efforts. It can provide an early warning signal about which voting precincts require more attention than others. As a bonus, it also gives the leading party bragging rights. And bragging rights can help motivate voters, candidates, volunteers, and donors in the fall. That’s important – particularly in the lead-up election to the November midterms, which will determine control of the United States Congress.
Primaries can also tell us about the efficacy of candidate recruitment. Has a party left positions on the table by not fielding candidates?
Looking at the ballots for the March 3 Primary, the answer is clear. We know that at least four elected positions will land in the Republican column by default, because their candidates will be unopposed in the November general election: Judges in the 207th and 274th Judicial Districts, and Justices of the Peace in Precincts 3 and 4.
The Democrats, on the other hand, are assured of seven automatic wins because there will be no Republican nominees to oppose them: Criminal District Attorney; Judge, County Court at Law #1; District Clerk; County Clerk; County Treasurer; Justice of the Peace, Precinct 1, Place 2; and Justice of the Peace, Precinct 5.
As of February 2, Hays County had 191,511 registered voters. Following the patterns of history, we can expect a combined turnout of just over 19 percent in the March 3 election. At a time when the future of democracy is the subject of so much discussion, we must do better than that.
Sincerely, Jon Leonard San Marcos
