The COVID-19 pandemic continues. Following significant surges in many states, signals in late July (at least as I am writing) have been modestly encouraging, with case numbers beginning to level off and COVID-related emergency room visits trending downward. Nonetheless, it will be a while before daily life or the economy can approach normal.
The US job market has improved as businesses have reopened, though total employment remains well below pre-COVID-19 levels. The most recent reports indicate gains of 2.7 million jobs in May and 4.8 million in June, with a decrease in the unemployment rate from 14.7% in April to 11.1% in June. However, the total increase over the past two months is far below the loss of 22.2 million during March and April. Moreover, the situation remains challenging and fluid, and momentum appears to be slowing a bit as some reopening moves were reversed.
Our latest forecasts indicate that 2021 will see the US economy regain a significant portion of activity lost through 2020. We are projecting a decrease in real gross product of -4.96% this year, with a gain of 3.67% in 2021. Employment is expected to decline by -6.25% for 2020 and rise 4.78% next year. This decline represents about 9.4 million jobs. It is worse than that now (as are the GDP numbers), but some improvement is anticipated as the year progresses.
