Prior to COVID-19, the US was in the midst of a 10+ year expansion. While not perfect, the basic structure of the economy was basically sound. If this structure is kept intact, the recovery can be both robust and rapid. If it is allowed to deteriorate, things will inevitably be much worse.
I made this observation during my first speech after things began to shut down and have repeated it literally hundreds of times in subsequent speeches, meetings, columns, interviews, articles, forecasts, newsletters, and reports. It’s an inescapable truism.
The Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act helped preserve this vital structure. It provided relief to individuals, small businesses, and key industries, which helped to mitigate the fallout from the pandemic and related safety requirements. The Federal Reserve (Fed) response has also been massive.
