Drought, fire risk to stay high during third La Niña winter

Drought and wildfire risks are expected to continue in western states — including Texas — while warmer than average temperatures will greet the Southwest, Gulf Coast and East Coast this winter, according to reports put out by federal weather officials last week.

La Niña is a weather pattern characterized by cold ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator. Officials with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are now reporting that the pattern is returning for a third winter — a phenomenon which is rarely seen. That means December, January and February are likely to bring drier than average conditions for most parts of Texas.

Wildfires will remain a risk, and some parts of the country may be in even greater danger than before, said Brad Pugh, operational drought lead with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

“One of the areas, over the next couple months, that is likely to have enhanced wildfire danger will be the south-central U.S. — Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas,” Pugh said. “Very dry conditions there. With that dryness, that will be an area for high wildfire danger in the coming three months.”

According to NOAA officials, drought conditions are currently ongoing in about 59% of the country, persisting in western states since late 2020. The continued La Niña climate pattern means that it is likely to expand to the Gulf Coast as well, NOAA said, which is also one of the parts of the country likely to experience higher than average temperatures.

Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting for Atmospheric and Environmental Research, said NOAA’s predictions match with his own expectations for the coming winter.

“I would definitely lean on a milder winter, especially east of the Rockies,” Cohen said. “Wetter to the north, drier to the south.”

Drought has had major consequences in states like California in recent years, including hurting agriculture operations, spurring water use cutbacks and elevating the risk of wildfires. This year, areas throughout Texas experienced much of the same; the recent reports from federal weather officials indicate this will persist at least through the end of the year and into 2023.

NOAA’s forecast is similar to projections from computer-based models, said Ryan Maue, a private meteorologist based in Atlanta, GA. Many parts of the country that could use a wet or snowy year are unlikely to get one, he said.

“I think the bottom line is we’re on a continuation of what we’ve been seeing over the last year, including last winter, and there’s not expected to be improvement in the drought situation across California and the center of the United States,” Maue said.

Locally, Hays County has spent a large portion of this year in drought with burn bans being turned on, then off, and frequently back on again. Despite experiencing the occasional raincloud or storm, such weather events have been largely limited to one or two days of inconsistent precipitation.

“It’s going to take a significant amount of rain over an extended period of time to bring conditions back to normal fire behavior and potential,” North Hays County Fire Rescue Fire Chief Scott Collard said back in March.

That sentiment has remained true for the region, which experienced a significant number of fires and wildfires over the summer months. The Smoke Rider Fire (Aug. 2–8) and the Gatlin Creek Fire (July 6–10) collectively burned over 1,500 acres in Dripping Springs alone. Nearby areas experienced much of the same, with fires burning in nearby Kyle, Buda and Wimberley.

In an emailed letter on Aug. 4, Hays County Commissioner Walt Smith, Precinct 4, requested a county-wide disaster designation.

“A rash of fires have beset Hays County and taxed our resources as well as those of our emergency service districts, citizens and partner municipalities,” he wrote. “From providing storage for displaced animals to the depletion of manpower and supplies to our first responders, the demands on the county and our partnering agencies and municipalities have quickly depleted the ability to respond and stretched our resources to their fullest. It’s for these reasons… I request you act immediately and declare a county-wide state of emergency for drought and wildfire. This action would allow our partners to apply for, and hopefully receive, additional funding, aid, and resources from governmental entities outside the county for which they otherwise may not qualify.”

No state of emergency was declared in Hays County, and Hays County Judge Ruben Becerra did not respond to a request for comment from The Century News.

Despite many — residents and officials alike — hoping that the autumn months would bring drought relief, September and October remained fairly dry for the most part.

In the middle of September, the total amount of rainfall for the area sat around 12 inches, according to Robin Gary with the Wimberley Valley Watershed Association. The total rainfall at that time, according to yearly averages, should have been somewhere around 22 inches.

Before Sept. 27, Austin’s main weather station at Camp Mabry had measured only 0.1 inch of rainfall in September, according to the National Weather Service. Overnight storms late that Tuesday and early Wednesday delivered more than an inch and a half of rain, pushing the month’s total to 1.79 inches. This monthly total was still almost two inches less than Austin normally gets in September, which typically is one of the wettest months. By comparison, September last year recorded nearly 6 inches of rainfall, according to a report from the Austin American-Statesman.

The burn ban is currently on in Hays County. For more information, visit hayscountytx.com/ law-enforcement/firemarshal.