2020 Texas State Football Preview

Bobcats hoping to cash in on offseason changes

Jake Spavital has had a very visible impact on Texas State’s football program in his first year as head coach. The Bobcats physically look bigger, one of Spavital’s top goals during the offseason. Players want to play for him, as evidenced by over 50 newcomers being added to this year’s roster. It likely isn’t a coincidence that Texas State will be one of the first FBS teams to return to play in 2020 as Spavital drilled his team on safety protocols just about as much as he did football.

Spavital’s impact hasn’t, however, translated to the field yet. He wasn’t able to push the Bobcats past 2018’s 3-9 overall record, matching it in 2019. In a few ways, the team took a step backward — Texas State went from an average scoring margin of -7.86 average scoring margin in 2018 to a -14.16 margin in 2019.

The head coach’s response has been to double down on himself. He dismissed multiple staff members during the offseason, seized control of play-calling duties and brought in former Ole Miss wide receivers coach Jacob Peeler, who Spavital worked with at California in 2016, as his offensive coordinator.

The team has room for improvement in almost every aspect and Spavital’s taken it upon himself to see those through. How this season goes will fall more on his shoulders than any other he’s ever been a part of.

Season at a Glance

1. How will the COVID-19 pandemic factor into the season? 

Texas State has been laying the groundwork for a return to play since June, when it brought 60 players in for voluntary workouts as part one of a three-phase return-to-campus plan.

Bobcat Stadium will only seat a maximum of 7,000 spectators, the team is undergoing twice-weekly COVID tests and a number of other safety measures have been implemented. And so far, they’ve all worked. 

Texas State received their tests on Monday and Wednesday. Spavital said at Tuesday’s practice that 75% of the first test’s results had come back so far, all negative.

But the school’s student body just returned to campus last week and there is a long season to go. The batch of tests results announced on Tuesday represent just 2.8% of the tests that will need to come back negative during the regular season. 

Spavital has said he doesn’t expect any player who tests positive to return to play this year. The risk is still very real.

2. How quickly will the new players adapt?

The 2020 season will be the first year in San Marcos for nearly half of Texas State’s roster. The 50-plus newcomers — the majority of them transfer players — didn’t have the luxury of a full spring camp and had to weather the challenges of preparing for a football season in a pandemic.

Peeler said the team used Zoom teleconferences while the players were away from campus to begin the process of assimilation. But building chemistry on and off the field takes time. Running back Jahmyl Jeter, wide receiver Waydale Jones and offensive lineman Silas Robinson still don’t know if they’re even eligible to play yet, currently waiting on the NCAA to rule on their hardship waivers.

Every team will go through growing pains this season. The maroon and gold might go through a lot of them.

3. What does Spavital calling plays mean for the offense?

Spavital relinquished his call sheet to former offensive coordinator Bob Stitt in 2019 to get a better handle on all the responsibilities a head coach takes on when inheriting a new program. Texas State remained as the worst offense in the Sun Belt, gaining 317.8 yards and scoring 18.4 points per game.

With a season now under his belt, Spavital is ready to call the shots again, which could be good news for the Bobcats. Spavital’s offenses ranked in the top 50 in the nation in each of the six seasons he spent as an offensive coordinator, including four years inside the top 20.

Texas State converted on just 33.7% of third downs last year, the third-lowest mark in the conference, struggling to stay on the field. The team played 768 offensive snaps and 875 defensive snaps in 2019. Tipping those totals in favor of the offense will be crucial for any semblance of improvement this season.

14 Bobcats to Watch

RETURNERS

Jeremiah Haydel

WR | SR | 6-foot | 170 pounds

2019 stats: 32 receptions, 324 receiving yards

Notable: Haydel grabbed the second-most passes on the team in 2019, but didn’t see his receiving yardage increase from his sophomore season and couldn’t find the end zone. The senior has enjoyed a strong fall camp, though, and will be the most seasoned target in a restocked receiving corps.

Jah’Marae Sheread

WR | RS-SO | 5-foot-7 | 155 pounds

2019 stats: 21 receptions, 236 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

Notable: Injuries seemed to be the only thing that could slow “K-Dot” down last year. The speedy slot receiver was productive through the first seven games of the season, earning three starts, but was sidelined for the final five. He showed big-play potential with a 50-yard touchdown against Wyoming and could bust loose for a few more if he stays healthy.

Reece Jordan

OL | SR | 6-foot-3 | 275 pounds

2019 stats: 12 starts, Pro Football Focus Offensive Team of the Week (Sept. 10)

Notable: Last year was Jordan’s first as the Bobcats’ full-time center. With four-year starter Aaron Brewer now with the Tennessee Titans, Texas State will have to lean on Jordan’s experience to help bring along a young unit.

Caeveon Patton

DL | SR | 6-foot-2 | 285 pounds

2019 stats: 61 total tackles, 2.0 TFLs, 0.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 3 pass deflections

Notable: Patton has been one of the most consistent players for the Bobcats in each of the past two seasons and has grown into a vocal leader of the defense. The senior missed a few weeks of practice due to injury but is expected to be ready for the 2020 season opener.

Jaquel Pierce

DL | SR | 6-foot-2 | 285 pounds

2019 stats: 12 tackles, 0.5 TFLs, 1 QB hurry

Notable: Pierce has patiently waited for his turn to start for the Bobcats. That opportunity comes this season. With injuries to the defensive line, Jake Spavital said Pierce and sophomore Jordan Revels have been taking more snaps than Texas State’s defensive backs in some practices — “unheard of for a fall camp.”

Gavin Graham

LB | RS-SR | 6-foot-1 | 225 pounds

2019 stats: 15 total tackles

Notable: Graham played the first three games of the 2019 season before tearing his ACL during Texas State’s game against SMU on Sept. 14. The linebacker has worked his way back into playing shape and will get a second shot at his senior season.

Jarron Morris

CB | JR | 5-foot-9 | 158 pounds

2019 stats: 63 total tackles, 2 interception, 7 pass deflections, 1 forced fumble

Notable: “Baby J” is one of the most exciting playmakers on the roster to watch. Morris goes toe-to-toe with every receiver he lines up against and plays well above his size. His two picks last season were tied for the most with former safety JaShon Waddy and the junior will anchor the maroon and gold secondary again in 2020. 

Seamus O’Kelly

P | SO | 6-foot | 165 pounds

2019 stats: 66 punts for 2,515 yards, 38.1-yard average

Notable: O’Kelly proved he belonged in American football despite never playing the sport before last season. The punter hailing from Brisbane, Australia, placed 20 kicks within the opponent’s 20-yard line, had 26 result in a fair catch and notched a career-high 59-yarder against ULM on Oct. 10.

NEWCOMERS

Brady McBride

QB | RS-SO | 6-foot | 204 pounds | Memphis

2018 stats (Memphis): 8-of 14, 88 passing yards, 1 interception

Notable: McBride was deemed ineligible for the 2019 season by the NCAA after transferring from Memphis and spent the year with the Bobcats’ scout team. His ability to extend plays and lead scoring drives helped him beat out incumbent start Tyler Vitt in fall camp.

Brock Sturges

RB | SO | 5-foot-11 | 200 pounds | Arizona State/Butler CC

2019 stats (Butler CC): 210 carries, 1,089 yards, 9 touchdowns

Notable: Texas State is likely to run a committee out of the backfield — especially if fellow transfer running back Jahmyl Jeter is granted a hardship waiver and can help out in short-yardage situations. But Sturges will be the primary option, with hopes he can jump start a run game that averaged a measly 76.8 yards per game in 2019.

Marcell Barbee

WR | JR | 6-foot-3 | 192 pounds | Iowa Western CC

2019 stats (Iowa Western CC): 29 receptions, 524 yards, 6 touchdowns

Notable: The Bobcats sought out bigger receivers in this year’s recruiting class and they nabbed some monsters, Barbee being one of them. The junior looked sharp all camp and is one of the reasons why Jacob Peeler believes this will be a much-improved group this season.

Alex Costilla

OL | JR | 6-foot-4 | 295 pounds | Tyler JC

Notable: The former San Marcos Rattler was in a battle for the starting right tackle spot all camp and eventually came out on top. Costilla had offers on the table from five different Power 5 schools but chose to return home instead.

Sione Tupou

LB | JR | 5-foot-11 | 240 pounds | UTEP

2019 stats: 45 total tackles, 1 sack

Notable: Texas State will turn to Tupou to fill the void left by Bryan London II, the program’s all-time leading tackler. Tupou was a two-year starter for the Miners and has blown his new teammates and coaches away in camp. Jeremiah Haydel said the linebacker seems to come up with an interception every practice.

Zion Childress

DB | FR | 6-foot | 183 pounds

Notable: Childress played quarterback for New Caney High School before switching over to defense at Texas State. Jake Spavital noted Childress has good instincts for the position and said the first-year player was playing at an “extremely-high level” during camp.

2020 Game Predictions

Sept. 5 vs. SMU

Last Meeting: SMU 47, Texas State 17 (Sept. 14, 2019, in Dallas)

Breakdown: The Bobcats very well could be an improved team in 2020. But even the most drastic changes Jake Spavital made won’t make up a 30-point difference. The team will be excited to play in a national TV game, but the Mustangs take the season opener.

Prediction: SMU 45, Texas State 21

Sept. 12 vs. UTSA

Last Meeting: UTSA 25, Texas State 21 (Sept. 22, 2018, in San Antonio)

Breakdown: The I-35 Rivalry returns to San Marcos. The Roadrunners, with a new head coach and starting quarterback, will struggle offensively, leading to the Bobcats’ first win of the season.

Prediction: Texas State 27, UTSA 14

Sept. 19 at ULM

Last Meeting: ULM 24, Texas State 21 (Oct. 10, 2019, in San Marcos)

Breakdown: The Warhawks may be in for a bit of a rebuilding year after losing three-year starting quarterback Caleb Evans. The Bobcats take advantage, opening up Sun Belt play with a victory.

Prediction: Texas State 28, ULM 17

Sept. 26 at Boston College

Last Meeting: N/A

Breakdown: The Golden Eagles will be the 10th Power 5 school Texas State has played in the past 10 years. The Bobcats have gone 0-9 against those opponents and that doesn’t change this season.

Prediction: Boston College 38, Texas State 10

Oct. 10 at Troy

Last Meeting: Troy 63, Texas State 27 (Nov. 16, 2019, in San Marcos)

Breakdown: The Trojans are still set up to contend for bowl eligibility this season. The Bobcats drop their first game of Sun Belt competition.

Prediction: Troy 31, Texas State 20

Oct. 17 at South Alabama

Last Meeting: Texas State 30, South Alabama 28 (Nov. 9, 2019, in San Marcos)

Breakdown: The Jaguars were the worst team in the conference last year, going 2-10 overall in 2019 with a 1-7 Sun Belt record. The Bobcats win a second road game for the first time since 2014.

Prediction: Texas State 34, South Alabama 24

 Oct. 24 at BYU

Last Meeting: N/A

Breakdown: The Cougars are one of the fiercest independent teams in the FBS. The Bobcats will be heavily jet-lagged playing in their fifth-straight road game and are handed a loss.

Prediction: BYU 42, Texas State 14

Oct. 31 vs. Louisiana

Last Meeting: Louisiana 31, Texas State 3 (Nov. 2, 2019, in Lafayette, Louisiana)

Breakdown: The Ragin’ Cajuns are favored to win the Sun Belt West Division again this year. The Bobcats will be energized after returning home, but will still fall short.

Prediction: Louisiana 27, Texas State 21

Nov. 7 vs. Appalachian State

Last Meeting: Appalachian State 35, Texas State 13 (Nov. 23, 2019, in Boone, North Carolina)

Breakdown: The reigning Sun Belt champion Mountaineers are the bullies of the conference. The Bobcats take a beating at home.

Prediction: Appalachian State 35, Texas State 17

Nov. 14 at Georgia Southern

Last Meeting: Georgia Southern 15, Texas State 13

Breakdown: The Eagles are a difficult team to prepare for due to their option offense and were the only team to take a game off of Appalachian State last year. The Bobcats drop their final road game of the season.

Prediction: Georgia Southern 21, Texas State 14

Nov. 21 vs. Arkansas State

Last Meeting: Arkansas State 38, Texas State 14 (Oct. 26, 2019, in Jonesboro, Arkansas)

Breakdown: The Red Wolves will have to replace several defensive starters this season but still roster the 2019 Sun Belt Newcomer of the Year in quarterback Layne Hatcher. The Bobcats make it a closer game but fall to five-straight losses.

Prediction: Arkansas State 28, Texas State 20

Nov. 28 vs. Coastal Carolina

Last Meeting: Coastal Carolina 24, Texas State 21 (Nov. 30, 2019, in Conway, South Carolina)

Breakdown: The Chanticleers will be visiting San Marcos for the first time in program history this season. The Bobcats send them packing, ending the year with a win on Senior Night

Prediction: Texas State 27, Coastal Carolina 17

Best-Case Scenario

Jake Spavital’s bet on himself pays off. The offense gets revitalized with him and Jacob Peeler at the helm. The newcomers gel into the system without any hiccups. The Bobcats emerge victorious in a surprising number of games and look toward bowl eligibility.

Worst-Case Scenario

The offense remains a tragedy and the defense takes a step back after a mass exodus of seniors. Texas State side steps for another season failing to capitalize on the program’s potential again.

Final Say

The offense improves with Spavital calling plays, but not to a level where they’re burning every defense it matches up with. The defense takes a small step back with multiple long-time starters gone. Texas State finishes the year with a 4-8 record, the most wins in a season for the program since 2014.